August 22, 2011

Poll Shows Obama Losing 2012 Reelection

Gallup Poll shows Romney 48 Obama 46

August 22, 2011. Washington. Gallup released a poll today showing how voters would react to certain one-on-one general election match-ups. While the results varied slightly for each of the top four Republican candidates, one candidate registered a solid win against the President, while another would finish tied. The four GOP candidates Gallup put individually against President Obama were Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), former governor Mitt Romney and Texas Governor Rick Perry.

President Obama has seen his approval ratings slowly plummet this year. Read last week’s Whiteout Press article ‘Obama Approval Rating Drops to 39 Percent’ for more information. His Republican challengers appear to have capitalized on the public’s lack of confidence in the current administration.

Here are the results of the Gallup Poll released today. Poll data is from August 17-18 and a sampling of 879 registered voters (1,026 individuals when unregistered voters are included).

 

In a one-on-one race for President in 2012, who would voters support?

Romney 48 – Obama 46 (other/undecided 6)

Perry 47 – Obama 47 (other/undecided 6)

Obama 47 – Paul 45 (other/undecided 8)

Obama 48 – Bachmann 44 (other/undecided 7)

 

One interesting observation from the data is that of all the GOP candidates, the only one that is favored among unregistered voters is Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Gallup also broke out the totals for Americans who are not registered to vote. In those cases, President Obama beats all 4 GOP challengers and adds an average 3 percent to his margin of victory – in every race except against Ron Paul.



In a race versus Texas Congressman Paul, President Obama’s numbers among unregistered voters actually go down. Against the other Republicans, his numbers go up. Also, Ron Paul shows independent voters flocking to his candidacy from President Obama's more than any other GOP candidate. The only Republican candidate not to beat the President among independents is Michele Bachmann.

 

Gallup Results by Party Affiliation:

                             Republicans         Independents        Democrats

Obama                          6                         44                       84

Romney                       91                         47                       12

 

Obama                         6                          44                        86

Perry                          92                          46                        10

 

Obama                       11                           43                        84

Paul                           82                           46                        12

 

Obama                         9                            48                       85

Bachmann                  86                            42                        11

 

If there had to be an overall winner in this Gallup poll, it would be Mitt Romney. Mr. Romney enjoys not only one of the highest votes among his own Republicans, but he actually scores higher among independents than any other GOP candidate, including the darling of the independents Ron Paul. Lastly, Romney finishes best with Democratic voters, tied with Ron Paul. While each GOP candidate has their niche of voters, Romney seems to appeal to all three categories. That’s an accomplishment the next President, no matter who it is, will have to master to win.

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